UK commerce –

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting information on items exports from Nice Britain to the EU in January 2021, and information on items imports from the EU to Nice Britain in January 2022. We now have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to mirror this information assortment change, which introduced imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like foundation in 2021.

Individually, Staged Customs Controls (SCC) have affected information on imports of non-controlled items from the EU to Nice Britain within the first six months of 2022.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the usage of SCC allowed customs declarations to be reported as much as 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled items from the EU to Nice Britain. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, whereas July 2022 marked the primary full month of information the place delayed customs declarations submitted beneath SCC couldn’t be included. Non permanent preparations nonetheless apply for imports of products from Eire to Nice Britain.

In our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: further update on Staged Customs Controls article printed on 3 July 2023, we analysed the impression of SCC on commerce in items information for imports from the EU to Nice Britain in 2022.

To account for the impression of SCC, which led to some double counting, now we have now utilized a downward adjustment of £6.0 billion to our estimates of products imports from the EU for the interval January to June 2022. These revised estimates had been included in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023 and Balance of payments, UK: April to June 2023 releases printed on 29 September 2023, and can now be printed throughout all releases within the commerce in items collection.

We now have printed an article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2022 EU imports estimates alongside this bulletin, summarising these changes to our estimates of products imports from the EU within the first six months of 2022.

Imports from and exports to the EU pre-2021

The total time collection for items imports from and exports to the EU accommodates a discontinuity from January 2021 ensuing from the transfer from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We’re exploring out there information sources to evaluate whether or not it’s doable to make comparable changes for the interval previous to 2021.

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Whole imports of products in “present costs”, which aren’t adjusted for inflation (defined in Section 10: Glossary), elevated by £0.8 billion (1.7%) in August 2023. Imports from EU international locations fell by £0.2 billion, whereas imports from non-EU international locations rose by £1.0 billion (Desk 1 and Determine 1).

Whole exports of products decreased by £0.7 billion (2.2%) in August 2023, due to a £0.7 billion fall in exports to non-EU international locations, whereas exports to EU international locations remained secure. Due to this fact, the month-to-month steadiness of commerce in items widened by £1.5 billion in August to a deficit of £16.7 billion.

Imports from the EU had been £5.2 billion larger than from non-EU international locations in August 2023, whereas exports to the EU had been £0.2 billion decrease than exports to non-EU international locations.

Determine 1: Imports from non-EU international locations elevated in August 2023, whereas imports from the EU fell

EU and non-EU items imports and exports, excluding treasured metals, present costs, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to August 2023

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Notes:

1. HM Income and Customs (HMRC) information assortment adjustments following EU exit have affected statistics on UK commerce in items with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles present extra element.

After eradicating the impact of inflation by calculating “chained quantity measures” (defined in Section 10: Glossary), whole items imports decreased by £0.4 billion (1.1%) in August 2023 (Determine 2). This was as a result of imports from the EU fell by £0.7 billion (3.2%), whereas imports from non-EU international locations rose by £0.3 billion (1.7%).

Whole items exports fell by £1.3 billion (4.6%) in August 2023, after the impact of inflation is eliminated. Exports to non-EU international locations decreased by £1.0 billion (7.2%) and exports to EU international locations fell by £0.2 billion (1.8%).

Determine 2: Non-EU imports rose in August 2023 in each present costs and inflation-adjusted phrases

Imports and exports of products, excluding treasured metals, present costs and chained quantity measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to August 2023

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Notes:

1. HM Income and Customs (HMRC) information assortment adjustments following EU exit have affected statistics on UK commerce in items with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles present extra element.

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Items imports

Imports from the EU decreased by £0.2 billion (0.7%) in August 2023. This was due to a £0.2 billion fall in chemical imports (Determine 3), with decrease imports of natural chemical substances from Eire. Imports of equipment and transport gear and materials manufactures additionally fell in August, every by £0.1 billion. These falls had been partially offset by a £0.3 billion enhance in gasoline imports.

Imports from non-EU international locations elevated by £1.0 billion (4.9%) in August 2023 due to a £1.0 billion rise in gasoline imports, ensuing from elevated imports of fuel from Norway. Moreover, imports of miscellaneous manufactures rose by £0.2 billion, attributed to larger imports of different manufactures from China.

Determine 3: Imports of products from non-EU international locations rose in August 2023, with a rise in gasoline imports

EU and non-EU items imports by commodity, present costs, seasonally adjusted, August 2021 to August 2023

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Notes:

1. HM Income and Customs (HMRC) information assortment adjustments following EU exit have affected statistics on UK commerce in items with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles present extra element.

Unstable gasoline costs have influenced traits within the worth of gasoline imports since autumn 2021. After a considerable fall in June, the overall worth of gasoline imported from non-EU international locations elevated by £1.0 billion (25.2%) in August 2023 due to larger imports of oil and fuel (Determine 4). Whereas there was a slight enhance within the worth of oil and fuel in August 2023, that is minor in comparison with the dimensions of worth fluctuations noticed all through 2022. In inflation-adjusted phrases, imports of fuels from non-EU international locations elevated barely by a lesser £0.1 billion (2.7%).

Items exports

Exports to the EU remained secure in August 2023, with small actions throughout all commodities (Determine 5). There have been slight will increase in exports of equipment and transport gear and fuels. Nevertheless, these had been offset by slight decreases in exports of drinks and tobacco and miscellaneous manufactures.

Exports to non-EU international locations decreased by £0.7 billion (4.5%) in August 2023. This lower was primarily due to falls of £0.4 billion in chemical substances exports, £0.2 billion in equipment and transport gear exports and £0.1 billion in exports of fuels. The lower in exports of chemical substances was the results of decrease exports of natural chemical substances to the USA. The autumn in equipment and transport gear may be attributed to decrease exports of automobiles to the USA and China, and mechanical equipment to Turkey and Hong Kong.

Determine 5: Exports of products to non-EU international locations fell in August 2023, ensuing from a lower in exports of chemical substances, equipment and transport gear and fuels

EU and non-EU items exports by commodity, present costs, seasonally adjusted, August 2021 to August 2023

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Notes:

1. HM Income and Customs (HMRC) information assortment adjustments following EU exit have affected statistics on UK commerce in items with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles present extra element.

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Early estimates counsel imports of companies remained secure in worth phrases in August 2023, whereas exports elevated by £0.1 billion (0.2%) (Determine 6). Though worth rises have affected commerce in companies in latest months, in August 2023 there was little distinction between commerce in companies traits in worth and inflation-adjusted phrases. Month-to-month figures for commerce in companies for August 2023 are estimated from Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 information, utilizing extra information sources. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for extra element on how our commerce in companies statistics are compiled.

The S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for August reported decrease ranges of exercise within the service sector. Earlier excessive ranges in monetary companies and client dealing with companies began to fade and there was a lower in demand reported for enterprise companies.

Determine 6: Exports of companies are estimated to have elevated barely in each worth and inflation-adjusted phrases in August 2023, whereas imports remained secure

Imports and exports of companies, present costs and chained quantity measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to August 2023

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In worth phrases, commerce in companies is at a better stage than earlier than the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Imports of companies have elevated by £7.6 billion (41.0%) in contrast with February 2020, whereas exports of companies have risen by £9.4 billion (32.0%). After the impact of inflation has been eliminated, imports of companies are £3.3 billion (17.4%) above February 2020, and exports of companies are £2.5 billion (8.8%) above February 2020.

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Whole imports of products decreased by £6.4 billion (4.3%) within the three months to August 2023, in contrast with the three months to Could 2023 (Desk 2). Items imports from the EU rose barely over this era whereas imports from non-EU international locations fell considerably. Exports of products decreased by £0.5 billion (0.5%) within the three months to August 2023, with a fall in exports to the EU barely offset by an increase in exports to non-EU international locations.

Imports of companies elevated by an estimated £1.8 billion (2.3%) within the three months to August 2023 in contrast with the three months to Could 2023, whereas exports of companies fell by £0.7 billion (0.6%).

The whole items and companies commerce steadiness, excluding treasured metals, narrowed by £3.5 billion to a deficit of £10.4 billion within the three months to August 2023 (Determine 7). Imports fell by £4.6 billion over this era, whereas exports fell by a lesser £1.1 billion. When eradicating the impact of inflation, the overall commerce deficit, excluding treasured metals, widened by £0.3 billion to £12.7 billion.

The commerce in items deficit in worth phrases, excluding treasured metals, narrowed by £5.9 billion to £47.9 billion within the three months to August 2023. The commerce in companies surplus narrowed by £2.5 billion to £37.5 billion.

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Discover the 2022 commerce in items information utilizing our interactive instruments. Our information break down UK commerce in items with 234 international locations by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a greater understanding of what items the UK traded with a rustic. Choose a rustic by hovering over it (desktop solely) or use the drop-down menu.

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Notes:

1. For extra details about our strategies and the way we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Customers ought to notice that the information printed alongside this launch are official statistics and not experimental.
2. These information are our greatest estimate of those bilateral UK commerce flows. Customers ought to notice that different estimates can be found, in some instances, via the statistical businesses for bilateral international locations or via central databases, resembling UN Comtrade.
3. This interactive map denotes nation boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and don’t signify the UK coverage on disputed territories.

You may also discover the 2022 commerce in items information by commodity, resembling automobile exports to the EU, and UK tea or espresso imports.

Choose a commodity from the drop-down menu or choose the degrees together with your digit or cursor to discover the information.

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Notes:

1. For extra details about our strategies and the way we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Customers ought to notice that the information printed alongside this launch are not experimental.
2. These information are our greatest estimate of those bilateral UK commerce flows. Customers ought to notice that different estimates can be found, in some instances, by way of the statistical businesses for bilateral international locations or via central databases, resembling UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote nation boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out inside Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and doesn’t signify the UK coverage on disputed territories.

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Chained quantity measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “actual” measure in that they’ve had the impact of inflation eliminated to measure the change in quantity between consecutive intervals, fixing the costs of products and companies in a single interval (referred to as the bottom 12 months, which is 2019 for commerce).

Present worth measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the precise worth paid for items or companies and are usually not adjusted for inflation. Except in any other case said, all present worth information are supplied in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change within the common worth stage of products and companies over a time frame.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF reveals the implied change in common costs for the respective parts of the commerce steadiness, for instance, the IDEF for imports will present the common worth motion for imports.

Valuable metals and non-monetary gold

Valuable metals embody treasured metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it kinds a part of the commodity group “unspecified items”. Non-monetary gold includes the vast majority of this group and is the technical time period for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Commerce steadiness

The commerce steadiness is the distinction between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the worth of exports is larger than the worth of imports, the commerce steadiness is in surplus. When the worth of imports is larger than the worth of exports, the commerce steadiness is in deficit. The steadiness is typically known as “web exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is obtainable.

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The UK leaving the EU and the next transition interval, together with the impression of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, provide chain disruption and international recession, have triggered larger ranges of volatility in commerce statistics lately. The month-to-month evaluation reveals short-term commerce actions, however it is very important notice that month-to-month information may be erratic, and subsequently actions ought to be handled with warning.

Knowledge sources

Knowledge from HM Income and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of commerce in items worth and are the primary supply for this launch. HMRC information assortment adjustments following Brexit have affected statistics on UK commerce in items with the EU. For additional particulars, see our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles.

Knowledge from the quarterly Worldwide Commerce in Companies (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of commerce in companies information. For additional particulars, see our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI). 

Knowledge from the Worldwide Passenger Survey (IPS) are the primary supply for journey companies, traditionally making up round 8% of whole imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a really small variety of ports but to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued warning when utilizing these information till the IPS is absolutely operational. For additional particulars, see our UK Trade QMI.

Except in any other case specified, information inside this bulletin are in present costs and haven’t been adjusted to take away the results of inflation. In keeping with worldwide requirements, our headline commerce statistics comprise the UK’s exports and imports of non-monetary gold. For additional info, see our National Accounts articles: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts.

Methodology

Commerce is measured via each exports and imports of products and companies. Knowledge are provided by over 30 sources, together with a number of administrative sources, with HMRC being the biggest for commerce in items.

Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) UK commerce figures are produced by nation of dispatch , which information imports as coming from the nation dispatching the shipments. Nevertheless, commerce figures can be produced by nation of origin, as is utilized by the Division for Power Safety and Web Zero (DESNZ). Customers ought to pay attention to the totally different accounting strategies used and the ensuing variations throughout commerce figures.

Month-to-month commerce in companies information are taken from quarterly commerce in companies information and cut up throughout the months inside that quarter via estimation. In months the place now we have a full quarter’s information, we revise earlier estimates of month-to-month values inside that quarter.

For extra detailed details about the strategies used to provide UK commerce statistics, see our UK Trade methodology.

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The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We now have now responded to all the particular necessities of the Workplace for Statistics Regulation’s (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As a part of our engagement with the OSR staff, we’re sharing our steady enchancment and improvement plans to assist UK commerce statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome suggestions on our new commerce statistics, developments, and future plans by e mail to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Commerce asymmetries

Asymmetries may be attributable to a spread of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of various international locations. Statistical businesses are more likely to have totally different supply information, estimation strategies, and methodological, geographical, and definitional variations. For extra info, see HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) UK trade asymmetries. For Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) evaluation on commerce in companies asymmetries, see our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

Extra high quality and methodology info on strengths, limitations, applicable makes use of, and the way the information had been created is obtainable in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

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