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URA releases flash estimate of 4th Quarter 2023 personal residential property value index
• General personal residential value index flash estimate elevated by 2.7% in 4th Quarter 2023, primarily pushed by gross sales transactions at chosen newly-launched initiatives. For 2023 as a complete, the personal residential value index elevated at a slower tempo of 6.7%, in comparison with 8.6% in 2022. This was the second consecutive yr of moderation within the index improve.
• Gross sales of personal residential properties continued to reasonable in 4th Quarter 2023, with personal housing sale transaction quantity lowering by about 27% on a quarter-on-quarter foundation. The overall transaction quantity in 2023 is at its lowest stage in seven years, since 2016.
• The Authorities has ramped up housing provide through the Authorities Land Gross sales (GLS) programme. The Confirmed Checklist provide of personal housing within the GLS Programme has been elevated considerably by round 50% to 9,250 items in 2023, from 6,290 items in 2022. In 1H2024, the GLS provide injection shall be elevated additional, with the discharge of 5,450 items in comparison with 5,160 items in 2H2023 and 4,090 items in 1H2023. That is the very best provide on the Confirmed Checklist in a single GLS Programme because the 2H2013 GLS Programme. The elevated personal housing provide from the GLS programme shall be prepared for gross sales launch within the coming yr or so, to cater to buy demand and assist preserve costs consistent with financial fundamentals.
• International financial exercise is anticipated to ease additional into 2024, with home mortgage charges at elevated ranges. Households ought to proceed to train prudence when taking up new monetary commitments together with long-term mortgage debt servicing obligations.
The City Redevelopment Authority (URA) launched the flash estimate of the worth index for personal residential properties for 4th Quarter 2023 as we speak.
General, the flash estimate of the personal residential property value index elevated on a quarter-on-quarter foundation by 2.7% in 4th Quarter 2023, bringing the worth achieve for the entire of 2023 to six.7% (see Annex A [PDF, 124 kb] and Annex B [PDF, 104 kb]). This represents a moderation from the 8.6% improve in 2022. Sale transaction quantity fell by about 27% on a quarter-on-quarter foundation. For the entire of 2023, sale transaction quantity fell by about 15% in comparison with 20221. This was the bottom annual sale transaction quantity since 2016.
Costs of non-landed properties rose by 2.2% in 4th Quarter 2023, primarily pushed by gross sales transactions at chosen newly-launched initiatives. For the entire of 2023, costs of non-landed properties elevated by 6.5%, moderating from the 8.1% improve in 2022. Costs of non-landed properties in Core Central Area (CCR) and Remainder of Central Area (RCR) elevated by 2.1% and a pair of.7% respectively in 2023, moderating from the respective improve of 4.8% and 9.7% in 2022 (see Annex C [PDF, 110 kb]).
The Authorities has additional ramped up the availability of personal housing on the Confirmed Checklist to five,450 items for the 1H2024 GLS Programme from 5,160 items in 2H2023. That is the very best provide on the Confirmed Checklist in a single GLS Programme because the 2H2013 GLS Programme. This provide injection will deliver the whole pipeline provide of personal housing to about 59,100 items, comprising 41,900 items with planning approval and 17,200 items from GLS websites and awarded en-bloc websites that haven’t been granted planning approval but. Of those, about 39,700 items shall be accomplished between 2023 and 2025, which is about double the 20,000 items accomplished from 2020 to 2022. This types a part of the whole provide of about 100,000 private and non-private housing items to be accomplished between 2023 and 2025, which is able to cater to housing demand within the rapid years forward and promote market stability.
The flash estimates are compiled based mostly on transaction costs given in contracts submitted for stamp responsibility fee and information on items offered by builders up until mid-December 2023. The statistics shall be up to date on 26 January 2024 when URA releases its full set of actual property statistics for 4th Quarter 2023. Previous information have proven that the distinction between the quarterly costs modifications indicated by the flash estimate and the precise modifications may very well be important when the change is small. The general public is suggested to interpret the flash estimates with warning.
1 Sale transaction quantity (as much as mid-December) totalled 3,800 in 4th Quarter 2023, in comparison with 5,201 in third Quarter 2023. Gross sales transaction quantity (as much as mid-December) totalled 18,510 in 2023, in comparison with 21,890 in 2022.
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