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Oncologists could usually present imprecise survival estimates for sufferers with superior most cancers, based on a research revealed in JNCI Most cancers Spectrum.
The oncologists studied “had been equally more likely to overestimate survival time as they had been to underestimate it,” researchers reported.
For this research, the researchers pooled information from 1211 sufferers with superior most cancers who had been enrolled in 7 potential research revealed between 2006 and 2022.
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The sufferers’ median age was 66 (vary, 16-92) years, and 61% had been males. Most cancers varieties included lung (40%), higher gastrointestinal (16%), colorectal (9%), breast (6%), and different (30%) cancers.
Total, the median estimated survival time was 9 months, and the median noticed survival time was 8 months.
The oncologists’ survival estimates met the definition of well-calibrated, as 50% of sufferers had an estimated survival time longer than their noticed survival time.
The researchers famous that the calibration of oncologists’ estimates “didn’t fluctuate tremendously” based on the size of the estimated survival time. The exception was for sufferers with an estimated survival time exceeding 20 months. For these sufferers, 60% of estimated occasions had been longer than the noticed survival time.
The researchers additionally discovered that 28% of sufferers had a exact estimated survival time, which was outlined as an estimate inside 0.67 to 1.33 occasions the noticed survival time. The precision of the oncologists’ estimates “didn’t very tremendously” based on the size of the estimated survival time, the researchers famous.
Lastly, the researchers discovered that 8% of sufferers lived shorter than one-quarter of their oncologist’s estimate, 56% of sufferers lived inside half to double their oncologist’s estimate, and 11% of sufferers lived longer than 3 occasions their oncologist’s estimate.
The researchers concluded that oncologists’ estimates “had been well-calibrated however imprecise.” The researchers suggest that oncologists estimate a affected person’s anticipated survival time (outlined because the median survival time in a gaggle of comparable sufferers) and clarify 3 situations for survival primarily based on outcomes offered by a free on-line instrument the researchers developed.
Disclosures: One research creator is a deputy editor of JNCI Most cancers Spectrum. Please see the unique reference for a full checklist of disclosures.
Reference
Nahm SH, Martin AJ, Clayton JM, et al. Accuracy of oncologists’ estimates of anticipated survival time in superior most cancers. JNCI Most cancers Spectr. Printed on-line November 14, 2023. doi:10.1093/jncics/pkad094
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